The Draw · Method

AI Predictor

Monte Carlo simulation across 20,000 tournaments. Each match is sampled from team strength, host advantage, altitude and travel.

Most likely champion

🇦🇷

Argentina

15.9%

Title odds

Knockout bracket

Most-likely path through the knockout, walking the actual schedule slots.

Predicted group standings

Group A

1. 🇲🇽 Mexico
2. 🇰🇷 South Korea
3. 🇨🇿 Czechia

Group B

1. 🇨🇭 Switzerland
2. 🇨🇦 Canada
3. 🇶🇦 Qatar

Group C

1. 🇧🇷 Brazil
2. 🇲🇦 Morocco
3. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland →R32

Group D

1. 🇺🇸 United States
2. 🇹🇷 Türkiye
3. 🇵🇾 Paraguay

Group E

1. 🇩🇪 Germany
2. 🇪🇨 Ecuador
3. 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire →R32

Group F

1. 🇳🇱 Netherlands
2. 🇯🇵 Japan
3. 🇹🇳 Tunisia

Group G

1. 🇧🇪 Belgium
2. 🇮🇷 Iran
3. 🇪🇬 Egypt →R32

Group H

1. 🇪🇸 Spain
2. 🇺🇾 Uruguay
3. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia →R32

Group I

1. 🇫🇷 France
2. 🇸🇳 Senegal
3. 🇳🇴 Norway →R32

Group J

1. 🇦🇷 Argentina
2. 🇦🇹 Austria
3. 🇩🇿 Algeria →R32

Group K

1. 🇵🇹 Portugal
2. 🇨🇴 Colombia
3. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan →R32

Group L

1. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
2. 🇭🇷 Croatia
3. 🇬🇭 Ghana →R32

Round of 32

Round of 16

Quarter-final

Semi-final

The Final

🇰🇷 South Korea 1

🇨🇦 Canada 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇯🇵 Japan 0

🇩🇪 Germany 1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland 0

🇳🇱 Netherlands 1

🇲🇦 Morocco 0

🇪🇨 Ecuador 0

🇸🇳 Senegal 1

🇫🇷 France 1

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0

🇲🇽 Mexico 1

🇳🇴 Norway 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0

🇧🇪 Belgium 1

🇩🇿 Algeria 0

🇺🇸 United States 1

🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire 0

🇪🇸 Spain 1

🇦🇹 Austria 0

🇨🇴 Colombia 0

🇭🇷 Croatia 1

🇨🇭 Switzerland 1

🇪🇬 Egypt 0

🇹🇷 Türkiye 0

🇮🇷 Iran 1

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇺🇾 Uruguay 0

🇵🇹 Portugal 1

🇬🇭 Ghana 0

🇰🇷 South Korea 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇩🇪 Germany 1

🇳🇱 Netherlands 2

🇸🇳 Senegal 0

🇫🇷 France 1

🇲🇽 Mexico 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1

🇧🇪 Belgium 2

🇺🇸 United States 1

🇪🇸 Spain 1

🇭🇷 Croatia 0

🇨🇭 Switzerland 1

🇮🇷 Iran 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇵🇹 Portugal 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇳🇱 Netherlands 0

🇫🇷 France 2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1

🇧🇪 Belgium 0

🇪🇸 Spain 1

🇨🇭 Switzerland 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇧🇷 Brazil 0

🇫🇷 France 1

🇪🇸 Spain 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇫🇷 France 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🏆

Argentina

Title odds

#	Team	Title odds	Reach final	Reach semi	Quarter-final	Round of 16
1	🇦🇷 Argentina	15.9%	24.4%	37.8%	54.5%	76.6%
2	🇪🇸 Spain	11.9%	19.9%	32.1%	49.6%	74.0%
3	🇫🇷 France	10.1%	17.2%	30.6%	47.2%	70.4%
4	🇧🇷 Brazil	8.4%	14.7%	26.8%	43.8%	68.8%
5	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England	7.7%	13.6%	26.8%	43.7%	67.5%
6	🇵🇹 Portugal	6.5%	12.2%	22.6%	39.7%	65.5%
7	🇩🇪 Germany	6.0%	11.5%	21.7%	38.5%	64.8%
8	🇳🇱 Netherlands	5.6%	10.7%	21.1%	36.9%	61.4%
9	🇧🇪 Belgium	4.6%	9.5%	18.8%	34.4%	59.6%
10	🇭🇷 Croatia	2.6%	5.9%	14.2%	27.4%	50.6%
11	🇨🇭 Switzerland	2.1%	5.2%	11.4%	24.5%	48.2%
12	🇲🇦 Morocco	1.7%	4.1%	10.4%	22.3%	45.7%
13	🇺🇾 Uruguay	1.5%	3.7%	9.2%	20.7%	42.9%
14	🇺🇸 United States	1.3%	3.4%	8.7%	19.8%	41.2%
15	🇨🇴 Colombia	1.2%	3.1%	7.9%	18.8%	40.3%
16	🇰🇷 South Korea	1.1%	3.0%	7.5%	17.3%	39.2%
17	🇲🇽 Mexico	1.1%	3.2%	7.1%	18.4%	42.6%
18	🇯🇵 Japan	1.0%	2.8%	6.7%	16.3%	34.7%
19	🇮🇷 Iran	0.9%	2.7%	6.6%	16.2%	36.9%
20	🇸🇳 Senegal	0.9%	2.4%	5.6%	14.0%	32.0%
21	🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire	0.8%	2.3%	5.8%	15.4%	36.4%
22	🇪🇨 Ecuador	0.8%	2.4%	5.9%	15.6%	36.7%
23	🇹🇷 Türkiye	0.7%	2.3%	5.7%	14.4%	32.6%
24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland	0.6%	1.7%	4.2%	11.9%	29.5%
25	🇦🇹 Austria	0.6%	2.0%	5.1%	13.1%	31.4%
26	🇳🇴 Norway	0.6%	1.7%	4.1%	11.4%	28.2%
27	🇦🇺 Australia	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	11.6%	28.3%
28	🇨🇦 Canada	0.5%	1.9%	4.7%	13.2%	33.7%
29	🇨🇿 Czechia	0.4%	1.3%	3.2%	9.4%	25.6%
30	🇵🇾 Paraguay	0.3%	1.1%	2.8%	7.9%	21.9%
31	🇸🇪 Sweden	0.3%	0.9%	2.4%	6.9%	19.8%
32	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0.3%	0.9%	2.1%	6.4%	18.3%
33	🇪🇬 Egypt	0.3%	0.9%	2.3%	7.2%	21.0%
34	🇩🇿 Algeria	0.2%	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	18.9%
35	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	5.4%	17.2%
36	🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	6.1%	18.7%
37	🇬🇭 Ghana	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	4.8%	14.4%
38	🇶🇦 Qatar	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	5.3%	17.6%
39	🇯🇴 Jordan	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.5%	11.6%
40	🇨🇩 DR Congo	0.1%	0.4%	1.0%	3.5%	12.4%
41	🇮🇶 Iraq	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.7%	10.1%
42	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	3.4%	12.0%
43	🇵🇦 Panama	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.8%	12.4%
44	🇳🇿 New Zealand	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%
45	🇿🇦 South Africa	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	9.8%
46	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	4.7%
47	🇨🇼 Curaçao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%
48	🇭🇹 Haiti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%

Method

How it works

Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
20,000 simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

Generated from 20,000 simulations · May 4, 2026