Il sorteggio · Metodo

Pronostico IA

Simulazione Monte Carlo su 20.000 tornei. Ogni partita viene campionata da forza, fattore campo, altitudine e viaggio.

Campione più probabile

🇦🇷

Argentina

15.9%

Probabilità di vittoria

Tabellone a eliminazione

Most-likely path through the knockout, walking the actual schedule slots.

Predicted group standings

Girone A

1. 🇲🇽 Messico
2. 🇰🇷 Corea del Sud
3. 🇨🇿 Cechia

Girone B

1. 🇨🇭 Svizzera
2. 🇨🇦 Canada
3. 🇶🇦 Qatar

Girone C

1. 🇧🇷 Brasile
2. 🇲🇦 Marocco
3. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scozia →R32

Girone D

1. 🇺🇸 Stati Uniti
2. 🇹🇷 Turchia
3. 🇵🇾 Paraguay

Girone E

1. 🇩🇪 Germania
2. 🇪🇨 Ecuador
3. 🇨🇮 Costa d’Avorio →R32

Girone F

1. 🇳🇱 Paesi Bassi
2. 🇯🇵 Giappone
3. 🇹🇳 Tunisia

Girone G

1. 🇧🇪 Belgio
2. 🇮🇷 Iran
3. 🇪🇬 Egitto →R32

Girone H

1. 🇪🇸 Spagna
2. 🇺🇾 Uruguay
3. 🇸🇦 Arabia Saudita →R32

Girone I

1. 🇫🇷 Francia
2. 🇸🇳 Senegal
3. 🇳🇴 Norvegia →R32

Girone J

1. 🇦🇷 Argentina
2. 🇦🇹 Austria
3. 🇩🇿 Algeria →R32

Girone K

1. 🇵🇹 Portogallo
2. 🇨🇴 Colombia
3. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan →R32

Girone L

1. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inghilterra
2. 🇭🇷 Croazia
3. 🇬🇭 Ghana →R32

Trentaduesimi

Ottavi di finale

Quarti di finale

Semifinale

La Finale

🇰🇷 Corea del Sud 1

🇨🇦 Canada 0

🇧🇷 Brasile 1

🇯🇵 Giappone 0

🇩🇪 Germania 1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scozia 0

🇳🇱 Paesi Bassi 1

🇲🇦 Marocco 0

🇪🇨 Ecuador 0

🇸🇳 Senegal 1

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇸🇦 Arabia Saudita 0

🇲🇽 Messico 1

🇳🇴 Norvegia 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inghilterra 1

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0

🇧🇪 Belgio 1

🇩🇿 Algeria 0

🇺🇸 Stati Uniti 1

🇨🇮 Costa d’Avorio 0

🇪🇸 Spagna 1

🇦🇹 Austria 0

🇨🇴 Colombia 0

🇭🇷 Croazia 1

🇨🇭 Svizzera 1

🇪🇬 Egitto 0

🇹🇷 Turchia 0

🇮🇷 Iran 1

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇺🇾 Uruguay 0

🇵🇹 Portogallo 1

🇬🇭 Ghana 0

🇰🇷 Corea del Sud 0

🇧🇷 Brasile 1

🇩🇪 Germania 1

🇳🇱 Paesi Bassi 2

🇸🇳 Senegal 0

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇲🇽 Messico 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inghilterra 1

🇧🇪 Belgio 2

🇺🇸 Stati Uniti 1

🇪🇸 Spagna 1

🇭🇷 Croazia 0

🇨🇭 Svizzera 1

🇮🇷 Iran 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇵🇹 Portogallo 0

🇧🇷 Brasile 1

🇳🇱 Paesi Bassi 0

🇫🇷 Francia 2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inghilterra 1

🇧🇪 Belgio 0

🇪🇸 Spagna 1

🇨🇭 Svizzera 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇧🇷 Brasile 0

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇪🇸 Spagna 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇫🇷 Francia 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🏆

Argentina

Probabilità di vittoria

#	Squadra	Probabilità di vittoria	Arrivare in finale	Semifinale	Quarti di finale	Ottavi di finale
1	🇦🇷 Argentina	15.9%	24.4%	37.8%	54.5%	76.6%
2	🇪🇸 Spagna	11.9%	19.9%	32.1%	49.6%	74.0%
3	🇫🇷 Francia	10.1%	17.2%	30.6%	47.2%	70.4%
4	🇧🇷 Brasile	8.4%	14.7%	26.8%	43.8%	68.8%
5	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inghilterra	7.7%	13.6%	26.8%	43.7%	67.5%
6	🇵🇹 Portogallo	6.5%	12.2%	22.6%	39.7%	65.5%
7	🇩🇪 Germania	6.0%	11.5%	21.7%	38.5%	64.8%
8	🇳🇱 Paesi Bassi	5.6%	10.7%	21.1%	36.9%	61.4%
9	🇧🇪 Belgio	4.6%	9.5%	18.8%	34.4%	59.6%
10	🇭🇷 Croazia	2.6%	5.9%	14.2%	27.4%	50.6%
11	🇨🇭 Svizzera	2.1%	5.2%	11.4%	24.5%	48.2%
12	🇲🇦 Marocco	1.7%	4.1%	10.4%	22.3%	45.7%
13	🇺🇾 Uruguay	1.5%	3.7%	9.2%	20.7%	42.9%
14	🇺🇸 Stati Uniti	1.3%	3.4%	8.7%	19.8%	41.2%
15	🇨🇴 Colombia	1.2%	3.1%	7.9%	18.8%	40.3%
16	🇰🇷 Corea del Sud	1.1%	3.0%	7.5%	17.3%	39.2%
17	🇲🇽 Messico	1.1%	3.2%	7.1%	18.4%	42.6%
18	🇯🇵 Giappone	1.0%	2.8%	6.7%	16.3%	34.7%
19	🇮🇷 Iran	0.9%	2.7%	6.6%	16.2%	36.9%
20	🇸🇳 Senegal	0.9%	2.4%	5.6%	14.0%	32.0%
21	🇨🇮 Costa d’Avorio	0.8%	2.3%	5.8%	15.4%	36.4%
22	🇪🇨 Ecuador	0.8%	2.4%	5.9%	15.6%	36.7%
23	🇹🇷 Turchia	0.7%	2.3%	5.7%	14.4%	32.6%
24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scozia	0.6%	1.7%	4.2%	11.9%	29.5%
25	🇦🇹 Austria	0.6%	2.0%	5.1%	13.1%	31.4%
26	🇳🇴 Norvegia	0.6%	1.7%	4.1%	11.4%	28.2%
27	🇦🇺 Australia	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	11.6%	28.3%
28	🇨🇦 Canada	0.5%	1.9%	4.7%	13.2%	33.7%
29	🇨🇿 Cechia	0.4%	1.3%	3.2%	9.4%	25.6%
30	🇵🇾 Paraguay	0.3%	1.1%	2.8%	7.9%	21.9%
31	🇸🇪 Svezia	0.3%	0.9%	2.4%	6.9%	19.8%
32	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0.3%	0.9%	2.1%	6.4%	18.3%
33	🇪🇬 Egitto	0.3%	0.9%	2.3%	7.2%	21.0%
34	🇩🇿 Algeria	0.2%	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	18.9%
35	🇸🇦 Arabia Saudita	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	5.4%	17.2%
36	🇧🇦 Bosnia ed Erzegovina	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	6.1%	18.7%
37	🇬🇭 Ghana	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	4.8%	14.4%
38	🇶🇦 Qatar	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	5.3%	17.6%
39	🇯🇴 Giordania	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.5%	11.6%
40	🇨🇩 RD del Congo	0.1%	0.4%	1.0%	3.5%	12.4%
41	🇮🇶 Iraq	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.7%	10.1%
42	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	3.4%	12.0%
43	🇵🇦 Panama	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.8%	12.4%
44	🇳🇿 Nuova Zelanda	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%
45	🇿🇦 Sudafrica	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	9.8%
46	🇨🇻 Capo Verde	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	4.7%
47	🇨🇼 Curaçao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%
48	🇭🇹 Haiti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%

Metodo

How it works

Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
20.000 simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

Generato da 20.000 simulazioni · 4 mag 2026