El sorteo · Método

Predictor IA

Simulación Monte Carlo de 20.000 torneos. Cada partido se muestrea según fuerza del equipo, ventaja local, altitud y viaje.

Campeón más probable

🇦🇷

Argentina

15.9%

Cuota de título

Cuadro de eliminatorias

Most-likely path through the knockout, walking the actual schedule slots.

Predicted group standings

Grupo A

1. 🇲🇽 México
2. 🇰🇷 Corea del Sur
3. 🇨🇿 Chequia

Grupo B

1. 🇨🇭 Suiza
2. 🇨🇦 Canadá
3. 🇶🇦 Catar

Grupo C

1. 🇧🇷 Brasil
2. 🇲🇦 Marruecos
3. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Escocia →R32

Grupo D

1. 🇺🇸 Estados Unidos
2. 🇹🇷 Turquía
3. 🇵🇾 Paraguay

Grupo E

1. 🇩🇪 Alemania
2. 🇪🇨 Ecuador
3. 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire →R32

Grupo F

1. 🇳🇱 Países Bajos
2. 🇯🇵 Japón
3. 🇹🇳 Túnez

Grupo G

1. 🇧🇪 Bélgica
2. 🇮🇷 Irán
3. 🇪🇬 Egipto →R32

Grupo H

1. 🇪🇸 España
2. 🇺🇾 Uruguay
3. 🇸🇦 Arabia Saudí →R32

Grupo I

1. 🇫🇷 Francia
2. 🇸🇳 Senegal
3. 🇳🇴 Noruega →R32

Grupo J

1. 🇦🇷 Argentina
2. 🇦🇹 Austria
3. 🇩🇿 Argelia →R32

Grupo K

1. 🇵🇹 Portugal
2. 🇨🇴 Colombia
3. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistán →R32

Grupo L

1. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inglaterra
2. 🇭🇷 Croacia
3. 🇬🇭 Ghana →R32

32avos de final

Octavos de final

Cuartos de final

Semifinal

La Final

🇰🇷 Corea del Sur 1

🇨🇦 Canadá 0

🇧🇷 Brasil 1

🇯🇵 Japón 0

🇩🇪 Alemania 1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Escocia 0

🇳🇱 Países Bajos 1

🇲🇦 Marruecos 0

🇪🇨 Ecuador 0

🇸🇳 Senegal 1

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇸🇦 Arabia Saudí 0

🇲🇽 México 1

🇳🇴 Noruega 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inglaterra 1

🇺🇿 Uzbekistán 0

🇧🇪 Bélgica 1

🇩🇿 Argelia 0

🇺🇸 Estados Unidos 1

🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire 0

🇪🇸 España 1

🇦🇹 Austria 0

🇨🇴 Colombia 0

🇭🇷 Croacia 1

🇨🇭 Suiza 1

🇪🇬 Egipto 0

🇹🇷 Turquía 0

🇮🇷 Irán 1

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇺🇾 Uruguay 0

🇵🇹 Portugal 1

🇬🇭 Ghana 0

🇰🇷 Corea del Sur 0

🇧🇷 Brasil 1

🇩🇪 Alemania 1

🇳🇱 Países Bajos 2

🇸🇳 Senegal 0

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇲🇽 México 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inglaterra 1

🇧🇪 Bélgica 2

🇺🇸 Estados Unidos 1

🇪🇸 España 1

🇭🇷 Croacia 0

🇨🇭 Suiza 1

🇮🇷 Irán 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇵🇹 Portugal 0

🇧🇷 Brasil 1

🇳🇱 Países Bajos 0

🇫🇷 Francia 2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inglaterra 1

🇧🇪 Bélgica 0

🇪🇸 España 1

🇨🇭 Suiza 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇧🇷 Brasil 0

🇫🇷 Francia 1

🇪🇸 España 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇫🇷 Francia 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🏆

Argentina

Cuota de título

#	Selección	Cuota de título	Llegar a la final	Semifinal	Cuartos de final	Octavos de final
1	🇦🇷 Argentina	15.9%	24.4%	37.8%	54.5%	76.6%
2	🇪🇸 España	11.9%	19.9%	32.1%	49.6%	74.0%
3	🇫🇷 Francia	10.1%	17.2%	30.6%	47.2%	70.4%
4	🇧🇷 Brasil	8.4%	14.7%	26.8%	43.8%	68.8%
5	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Inglaterra	7.7%	13.6%	26.8%	43.7%	67.5%
6	🇵🇹 Portugal	6.5%	12.2%	22.6%	39.7%	65.5%
7	🇩🇪 Alemania	6.0%	11.5%	21.7%	38.5%	64.8%
8	🇳🇱 Países Bajos	5.6%	10.7%	21.1%	36.9%	61.4%
9	🇧🇪 Bélgica	4.6%	9.5%	18.8%	34.4%	59.6%
10	🇭🇷 Croacia	2.6%	5.9%	14.2%	27.4%	50.6%
11	🇨🇭 Suiza	2.1%	5.2%	11.4%	24.5%	48.2%
12	🇲🇦 Marruecos	1.7%	4.1%	10.4%	22.3%	45.7%
13	🇺🇾 Uruguay	1.5%	3.7%	9.2%	20.7%	42.9%
14	🇺🇸 Estados Unidos	1.3%	3.4%	8.7%	19.8%	41.2%
15	🇨🇴 Colombia	1.2%	3.1%	7.9%	18.8%	40.3%
16	🇰🇷 Corea del Sur	1.1%	3.0%	7.5%	17.3%	39.2%
17	🇲🇽 México	1.1%	3.2%	7.1%	18.4%	42.6%
18	🇯🇵 Japón	1.0%	2.8%	6.7%	16.3%	34.7%
19	🇮🇷 Irán	0.9%	2.7%	6.6%	16.2%	36.9%
20	🇸🇳 Senegal	0.9%	2.4%	5.6%	14.0%	32.0%
21	🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire	0.8%	2.3%	5.8%	15.4%	36.4%
22	🇪🇨 Ecuador	0.8%	2.4%	5.9%	15.6%	36.7%
23	🇹🇷 Turquía	0.7%	2.3%	5.7%	14.4%	32.6%
24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Escocia	0.6%	1.7%	4.2%	11.9%	29.5%
25	🇦🇹 Austria	0.6%	2.0%	5.1%	13.1%	31.4%
26	🇳🇴 Noruega	0.6%	1.7%	4.1%	11.4%	28.2%
27	🇦🇺 Australia	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	11.6%	28.3%
28	🇨🇦 Canadá	0.5%	1.9%	4.7%	13.2%	33.7%
29	🇨🇿 Chequia	0.4%	1.3%	3.2%	9.4%	25.6%
30	🇵🇾 Paraguay	0.3%	1.1%	2.8%	7.9%	21.9%
31	🇸🇪 Suecia	0.3%	0.9%	2.4%	6.9%	19.8%
32	🇹🇳 Túnez	0.3%	0.9%	2.1%	6.4%	18.3%
33	🇪🇬 Egipto	0.3%	0.9%	2.3%	7.2%	21.0%
34	🇩🇿 Argelia	0.2%	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	18.9%
35	🇸🇦 Arabia Saudí	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	5.4%	17.2%
36	🇧🇦 Bosnia y Herzegovina	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	6.1%	18.7%
37	🇬🇭 Ghana	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	4.8%	14.4%
38	🇶🇦 Catar	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	5.3%	17.6%
39	🇯🇴 Jordania	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.5%	11.6%
40	🇨🇩 RD del Congo	0.1%	0.4%	1.0%	3.5%	12.4%
41	🇮🇶 Irak	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.7%	10.1%
42	🇺🇿 Uzbekistán	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	3.4%	12.0%
43	🇵🇦 Panamá	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.8%	12.4%
44	🇳🇿 Nueva Zelanda	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%
45	🇿🇦 Sudáfrica	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	9.8%
46	🇨🇻 Cabo Verde	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	4.7%
47	🇨🇼 Curazao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%
48	🇭🇹 Haití	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%

Método

How it works

Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
20.000 simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

Generado de 20.000 simulaciones · 4 may 2026