Kura · Mbinu

Utabiri wa AI

Simulizi ya Monte Carlo katika mashindano 20,000. Kila mechi inachukuliwa kutoka kwa nguvu ya timu, faida ya mwenyeji, mwinuko na safari.

Bingwa anayetarajiwa zaidi

🇦🇷

Ajentina

15.9%

Uwezekano wa ubingwa

Mchoro wa hatua za mtoano

Most-likely path through the knockout, walking the actual schedule slots.

Predicted group standings

Kundi A

1. 🇲🇽 Meksiko
2. 🇰🇷 Korea Kusini
3. 🇨🇿 Chechia

Kundi B

1. 🇨🇭 Uswisi
2. 🇨🇦 Kanada
3. 🇶🇦 Qatar

Kundi C

1. 🇧🇷 Brazil
2. 🇲🇦 Moroko
3. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Uskoti →R32

Kundi D

1. 🇺🇸 Marekani
2. 🇹🇷 Uturuki
3. 🇵🇾 Paraguay

Kundi E

1. 🇩🇪 Ujerumani
2. 🇪🇨 Ecuador
3. 🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire →R32

Kundi F

1. 🇳🇱 Uholanzi
2. 🇯🇵 Japani
3. 🇹🇳 Tunisia

Kundi G

1. 🇧🇪 Ubelgiji
2. 🇮🇷 Iran
3. 🇪🇬 Misri →R32

Kundi H

1. 🇪🇸 Uhispania
2. 🇺🇾 Uruguay
3. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia →R32

Kundi I

1. 🇫🇷 Ufaransa
2. 🇸🇳 Senegal
3. 🇳🇴 Norway →R32

Kundi J

1. 🇦🇷 Ajentina
2. 🇦🇹 Austria
3. 🇩🇿 Algeria →R32

Kundi K

1. 🇵🇹 Ureno
2. 🇨🇴 Kolombia
3. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan →R32

Kundi L

1. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Uingereza
2. 🇭🇷 Croatia
3. 🇬🇭 Ghana →R32

Raundi 32

Raundi 16

Robo fainali

Nusu fainali

Fainali

🇰🇷 Korea Kusini 1

🇨🇦 Kanada 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇯🇵 Japani 0

🇩🇪 Ujerumani 1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Uskoti 0

🇳🇱 Uholanzi 1

🇲🇦 Moroko 0

🇪🇨 Ecuador 0

🇸🇳 Senegal 1

🇫🇷 Ufaransa 1

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0

🇲🇽 Meksiko 1

🇳🇴 Norway 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Uingereza 1

🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 0

🇧🇪 Ubelgiji 1

🇩🇿 Algeria 0

🇺🇸 Marekani 1

🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire 0

🇪🇸 Uhispania 1

🇦🇹 Austria 0

🇨🇴 Kolombia 0

🇭🇷 Croatia 1

🇨🇭 Uswisi 1

🇪🇬 Misri 0

🇹🇷 Uturuki 0

🇮🇷 Iran 1

🇦🇷 Ajentina 1

🇺🇾 Uruguay 0

🇵🇹 Ureno 1

🇬🇭 Ghana 0

🇰🇷 Korea Kusini 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇩🇪 Ujerumani 1

🇳🇱 Uholanzi 2

🇸🇳 Senegal 0

🇫🇷 Ufaransa 1

🇲🇽 Meksiko 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Uingereza 1

🇧🇪 Ubelgiji 2

🇺🇸 Marekani 1

🇪🇸 Uhispania 1

🇭🇷 Croatia 0

🇨🇭 Uswisi 1

🇮🇷 Iran 0

🇦🇷 Ajentina 1

🇵🇹 Ureno 0

🇧🇷 Brazil 1

🇳🇱 Uholanzi 0

🇫🇷 Ufaransa 2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Uingereza 1

🇧🇪 Ubelgiji 0

🇪🇸 Uhispania 1

🇨🇭 Uswisi 0

🇦🇷 Ajentina 1

🇧🇷 Brazil 0

🇫🇷 Ufaransa 1

🇪🇸 Uhispania 0

🇦🇷 Ajentina 1

🇫🇷 Ufaransa 0

🇦🇷 Ajentina 1

🏆

Ajentina

Uwezekano wa ubingwa

#	Timu	Uwezekano wa ubingwa	Kufika fainali	Nusu fainali	Robo fainali	Raundi 16
1	🇦🇷 Ajentina	15.9%	24.4%	37.8%	54.5%	76.6%
2	🇪🇸 Uhispania	11.9%	19.9%	32.1%	49.6%	74.0%
3	🇫🇷 Ufaransa	10.1%	17.2%	30.6%	47.2%	70.4%
4	🇧🇷 Brazil	8.4%	14.7%	26.8%	43.8%	68.8%
5	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Uingereza	7.7%	13.6%	26.8%	43.7%	67.5%
6	🇵🇹 Ureno	6.5%	12.2%	22.6%	39.7%	65.5%
7	🇩🇪 Ujerumani	6.0%	11.5%	21.7%	38.5%	64.8%
8	🇳🇱 Uholanzi	5.6%	10.7%	21.1%	36.9%	61.4%
9	🇧🇪 Ubelgiji	4.6%	9.5%	18.8%	34.4%	59.6%
10	🇭🇷 Croatia	2.6%	5.9%	14.2%	27.4%	50.6%
11	🇨🇭 Uswisi	2.1%	5.2%	11.4%	24.5%	48.2%
12	🇲🇦 Moroko	1.7%	4.1%	10.4%	22.3%	45.7%
13	🇺🇾 Uruguay	1.5%	3.7%	9.2%	20.7%	42.9%
14	🇺🇸 Marekani	1.3%	3.4%	8.7%	19.8%	41.2%
15	🇨🇴 Kolombia	1.2%	3.1%	7.9%	18.8%	40.3%
16	🇰🇷 Korea Kusini	1.1%	3.0%	7.5%	17.3%	39.2%
17	🇲🇽 Meksiko	1.1%	3.2%	7.1%	18.4%	42.6%
18	🇯🇵 Japani	1.0%	2.8%	6.7%	16.3%	34.7%
19	🇮🇷 Iran	0.9%	2.7%	6.6%	16.2%	36.9%
20	🇸🇳 Senegal	0.9%	2.4%	5.6%	14.0%	32.0%
21	🇨🇮 Cote d'Ivoire	0.8%	2.3%	5.8%	15.4%	36.4%
22	🇪🇨 Ecuador	0.8%	2.4%	5.9%	15.6%	36.7%
23	🇹🇷 Uturuki	0.7%	2.3%	5.7%	14.4%	32.6%
24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Uskoti	0.6%	1.7%	4.2%	11.9%	29.5%
25	🇦🇹 Austria	0.6%	2.0%	5.1%	13.1%	31.4%
26	🇳🇴 Norway	0.6%	1.7%	4.1%	11.4%	28.2%
27	🇦🇺 Australia	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	11.6%	28.3%
28	🇨🇦 Kanada	0.5%	1.9%	4.7%	13.2%	33.7%
29	🇨🇿 Chechia	0.4%	1.3%	3.2%	9.4%	25.6%
30	🇵🇾 Paraguay	0.3%	1.1%	2.8%	7.9%	21.9%
31	🇸🇪 Uswidi	0.3%	0.9%	2.4%	6.9%	19.8%
32	🇹🇳 Tunisia	0.3%	0.9%	2.1%	6.4%	18.3%
33	🇪🇬 Misri	0.3%	0.9%	2.3%	7.2%	21.0%
34	🇩🇿 Algeria	0.2%	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	18.9%
35	🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	5.4%	17.2%
36	🇧🇦 Bosnia na Hezegovina	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	6.1%	18.7%
37	🇬🇭 Ghana	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	4.8%	14.4%
38	🇶🇦 Qatar	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	5.3%	17.6%
39	🇯🇴 Yordani	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.5%	11.6%
40	🇨🇩 DR Kongo	0.1%	0.4%	1.0%	3.5%	12.4%
41	🇮🇶 Iraq	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.7%	10.1%
42	🇺🇿 Uzbekistan	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	3.4%	12.0%
43	🇵🇦 Panama	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.8%	12.4%
44	🇳🇿 New Zealand	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%
45	🇿🇦 Afrika Kusini	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	9.8%
46	🇨🇻 Cape Verde	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	4.7%
47	🇨🇼 Curacao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%
48	🇭🇹 Haiti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%

Mbinu

How it works

Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
20,000 simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

Imezalishwa kutoka simulizi 20,000 · 4 Mei 2026