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How it works

• Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
• Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
• Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
• Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
• Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
• Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
• ২০,০০০ simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

২০,০০০ সিমুলেশন থেকে · ৪ মে, ২০২৬