Qura tashlash · Usul

AI bashorat

Monte-Karlo simulyatsiyasi 20 000 turnir boʻyicha. Har bir oʻyin jamoa kuchi, mezbon afzalligi, balandlik va sayohatdan namuna olinadi.

Eng ehtimoliy chempion

🇦🇷

Argentina

15.9%

Chempionlik ehtimoli

Chiqib ketish jadvali

Most-likely path through the knockout, walking the actual schedule slots.

Predicted group standings

Guruh A

1. 🇲🇽 Meksika
2. 🇰🇷 Janubiy Koreya
3. 🇨🇿 Chexiya

Guruh B

1. 🇨🇭 Shveytsariya
2. 🇨🇦 Kanada
3. 🇶🇦 Qatar

Guruh C

1. 🇧🇷 Braziliya
2. 🇲🇦 Marokash
3. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Shotlandiya →R32

Guruh D

1. 🇺🇸 Amerika Qo‘shma Shtatlari
2. 🇹🇷 Turkiya
3. 🇵🇾 Paragvay

Guruh E

1. 🇩🇪 Germaniya
2. 🇪🇨 Ekvador
3. 🇨🇮 Kot-d’Ivuar →R32

Guruh F

1. 🇳🇱 Niderlandiya
2. 🇯🇵 Yaponiya
3. 🇹🇳 Tunis

Guruh G

1. 🇧🇪 Belgiya
2. 🇮🇷 Eron
3. 🇪🇬 Misr →R32

Guruh H

1. 🇪🇸 Ispaniya
2. 🇺🇾 Urugvay
3. 🇸🇦 Saudiya Arabistoni →R32

Guruh I

1. 🇫🇷 Fransiya
2. 🇸🇳 Senegal
3. 🇳🇴 Norvegiya →R32

Guruh J

1. 🇦🇷 Argentina
2. 🇦🇹 Avstriya
3. 🇩🇿 Jazoir →R32

Guruh K

1. 🇵🇹 Portugaliya
2. 🇨🇴 Kolumbiya
3. 🇺🇿 Oʻzbekiston →R32

Guruh L

1. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Angliya
2. 🇭🇷 Xorvatiya
3. 🇬🇭 Gana →R32

32 final

16 final

Chorak final

Yarim final

Final

🇰🇷 Janubiy Koreya 1

🇨🇦 Kanada 0

🇧🇷 Braziliya 1

🇯🇵 Yaponiya 0

🇩🇪 Germaniya 1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Shotlandiya 0

🇳🇱 Niderlandiya 1

🇲🇦 Marokash 0

🇪🇨 Ekvador 0

🇸🇳 Senegal 1

🇫🇷 Fransiya 1

🇸🇦 Saudiya Arabistoni 0

🇲🇽 Meksika 1

🇳🇴 Norvegiya 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Angliya 1

🇺🇿 Oʻzbekiston 0

🇧🇪 Belgiya 1

🇩🇿 Jazoir 0

🇺🇸 Amerika Qo‘shma Shtatlari 1

🇨🇮 Kot-d’Ivuar 0

🇪🇸 Ispaniya 1

🇦🇹 Avstriya 0

🇨🇴 Kolumbiya 0

🇭🇷 Xorvatiya 1

🇨🇭 Shveytsariya 1

🇪🇬 Misr 0

🇹🇷 Turkiya 0

🇮🇷 Eron 1

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇺🇾 Urugvay 0

🇵🇹 Portugaliya 1

🇬🇭 Gana 0

🇰🇷 Janubiy Koreya 0

🇧🇷 Braziliya 1

🇩🇪 Germaniya 1

🇳🇱 Niderlandiya 2

🇸🇳 Senegal 0

🇫🇷 Fransiya 1

🇲🇽 Meksika 0

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Angliya 1

🇧🇪 Belgiya 2

🇺🇸 Amerika Qo‘shma Shtatlari 1

🇪🇸 Ispaniya 1

🇭🇷 Xorvatiya 0

🇨🇭 Shveytsariya 1

🇮🇷 Eron 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇵🇹 Portugaliya 0

🇧🇷 Braziliya 1

🇳🇱 Niderlandiya 0

🇫🇷 Fransiya 2

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Angliya 1

🇧🇪 Belgiya 0

🇪🇸 Ispaniya 1

🇨🇭 Shveytsariya 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇧🇷 Braziliya 0

🇫🇷 Fransiya 1

🇪🇸 Ispaniya 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🇫🇷 Fransiya 0

🇦🇷 Argentina 1

🏆

Argentina

Chempionlik ehtimoli

#	Jamoa	Chempionlik ehtimoli	Finalga chiqish	Yarim finalga	Chorak final	16 final
1	🇦🇷 Argentina	15.9%	24.4%	37.8%	54.5%	76.6%
2	🇪🇸 Ispaniya	11.9%	19.9%	32.1%	49.6%	74.0%
3	🇫🇷 Fransiya	10.1%	17.2%	30.6%	47.2%	70.4%
4	🇧🇷 Braziliya	8.4%	14.7%	26.8%	43.8%	68.8%
5	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Angliya	7.7%	13.6%	26.8%	43.7%	67.5%
6	🇵🇹 Portugaliya	6.5%	12.2%	22.6%	39.7%	65.5%
7	🇩🇪 Germaniya	6.0%	11.5%	21.7%	38.5%	64.8%
8	🇳🇱 Niderlandiya	5.6%	10.7%	21.1%	36.9%	61.4%
9	🇧🇪 Belgiya	4.6%	9.5%	18.8%	34.4%	59.6%
10	🇭🇷 Xorvatiya	2.6%	5.9%	14.2%	27.4%	50.6%
11	🇨🇭 Shveytsariya	2.1%	5.2%	11.4%	24.5%	48.2%
12	🇲🇦 Marokash	1.7%	4.1%	10.4%	22.3%	45.7%
13	🇺🇾 Urugvay	1.5%	3.7%	9.2%	20.7%	42.9%
14	🇺🇸 Amerika Qo‘shma Shtatlari	1.3%	3.4%	8.7%	19.8%	41.2%
15	🇨🇴 Kolumbiya	1.2%	3.1%	7.9%	18.8%	40.3%
16	🇰🇷 Janubiy Koreya	1.1%	3.0%	7.5%	17.3%	39.2%
17	🇲🇽 Meksika	1.1%	3.2%	7.1%	18.4%	42.6%
18	🇯🇵 Yaponiya	1.0%	2.8%	6.7%	16.3%	34.7%
19	🇮🇷 Eron	0.9%	2.7%	6.6%	16.2%	36.9%
20	🇸🇳 Senegal	0.9%	2.4%	5.6%	14.0%	32.0%
21	🇨🇮 Kot-d’Ivuar	0.8%	2.3%	5.8%	15.4%	36.4%
22	🇪🇨 Ekvador	0.8%	2.4%	5.9%	15.6%	36.7%
23	🇹🇷 Turkiya	0.7%	2.3%	5.7%	14.4%	32.6%
24	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Shotlandiya	0.6%	1.7%	4.2%	11.9%	29.5%
25	🇦🇹 Avstriya	0.6%	2.0%	5.1%	13.1%	31.4%
26	🇳🇴 Norvegiya	0.6%	1.7%	4.1%	11.4%	28.2%
27	🇦🇺 Avstraliya	0.5%	1.7%	4.1%	11.6%	28.3%
28	🇨🇦 Kanada	0.5%	1.9%	4.7%	13.2%	33.7%
29	🇨🇿 Chexiya	0.4%	1.3%	3.2%	9.4%	25.6%
30	🇵🇾 Paragvay	0.3%	1.1%	2.8%	7.9%	21.9%
31	🇸🇪 Shvetsiya	0.3%	0.9%	2.4%	6.9%	19.8%
32	🇹🇳 Tunis	0.3%	0.9%	2.1%	6.4%	18.3%
33	🇪🇬 Misr	0.3%	0.9%	2.3%	7.2%	21.0%
34	🇩🇿 Jazoir	0.2%	0.8%	2.0%	6.5%	18.9%
35	🇸🇦 Saudiya Arabistoni	0.2%	0.8%	1.6%	5.4%	17.2%
36	🇧🇦 Bosniya va Gertsegovina	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	6.1%	18.7%
37	🇬🇭 Gana	0.2%	0.6%	1.5%	4.8%	14.4%
38	🇶🇦 Qatar	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	5.3%	17.6%
39	🇯🇴 Iordaniya	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	3.5%	11.6%
40	🇨🇩 KDR	0.1%	0.4%	1.0%	3.5%	12.4%
41	🇮🇶 Iroq	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.7%	10.1%
42	🇺🇿 Oʻzbekiston	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	3.4%	12.0%
43	🇵🇦 Panama	0.1%	0.4%	1.1%	3.8%	12.4%
44	🇳🇿 Yangi Zelandiya	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	2.7%	10.4%
45	🇿🇦 Janubiy Afrika Respublikasi	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	2.3%	9.8%
46	🇨🇻 Kabo-Verde	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	4.7%
47	🇨🇼 Kyurasao	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	1.8%
48	🇭🇹 Gaiti	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%

Usul

How it works

Elo strength rating – every qualified team gets an Elo number anchored to FIFA-ranking-implied Elo as of late 2025 with form-based tweaks.
Match probabilities – logistic curve over the Elo difference. Draws are calibrated to the empirical World Cup rate (~24%) and scale up for closely-matched fixtures.
Score expectancy – Poisson sampling with team-specific lambdas. Equal teams average 1.30 expected goals each (the WC mean since 1998).
Context – host nations get a +50 Elo at venues in their country. Mexico gets +30 at altitude in Mexico City.
Knockout – drawn matches go to AET (~30% scoring rate); still tied means a shootout where a small Elo edge becomes a 50–60% probability.
Modal bracket – most-frequent group standings across simulations, applied to the actual R32 slot rules (1A v 2B, 1L v 3rd EHIJK, etc.). Each knockout pairing then takes the favoured side.
20 000 simulations – full tournament played out from group stage to final, then aggregated into the probabilities you see above.

20 000 simulyatsiyadan yaratilgan · 4-may, 2026